Will "usdc" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "usdc" (18 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -0.758171492331311,
      "diversity": -0.2828571428571429
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3048305714805999
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usdc",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.009698275862068966,
    "share60": 0.020699708454810496,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 0.46852234094220496,
    "diversity": 0.5142857142857142,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992486574074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3048305714805999
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012550988390335738,
  "shareRatio": 0.24039748891731874,
  "totalAfter": 12748,
  "shareBefore": 0.0053224408961505135,
  "totalBefore": 8079,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity