Will "support" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "support" (21 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.0906114654245855,
      "diversity": -0.23684210526315783
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21028118613760585
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "support",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.007543103448275862,
    "share60": 0.022448979591836733,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 0.33601097178683387,
    "diversity": 0.5526315789473685,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954919444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21028118613760585
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.013822810852513823,
  "totalAfter": 1615,
  "shareBefore": 0.02210587550901687,
  "totalBefore": 1719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity