GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3914 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (36 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.3967237502086149,
      "diversity": 0.10465116279069772
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6281151493692827
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03771551724137931,
    "share60": 0.025364431486880466,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 1.48694510503369,
    "diversity": 0.8372093023255814,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954919444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6281151493692827
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.138
Log loss0.465
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03653250773993808,
  "shareRatio": 1.423128267882968,
  "totalAfter": 1615,
  "shareBefore": 0.025596276905177427,
  "totalBefore": 1719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 59,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.56% → 3.65% (+43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha5b074a3747a163de384415b75aea563bb6719132d6814096ad0d139d9045f9b
Previous hash280a000b278a144d85247385ef06bfd012aa619c1bc8e3f7bbe044095b5c49f2