Ledger / Prediction #3913 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

90 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (51 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43355576368442467,
      "momentum": -0.08455073412172105,
      "diversity": -0.22
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45735511559825287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04849137931034483,
    "share60": 0.05276967930029155,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 0.9189250333396837,
    "diversity": 0.5666666666666667,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 90,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954919444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45735511559825287
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.209

Log loss0.611

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02848297213622291,
  "shareRatio": 0.5468792735627154,
  "totalAfter": 1615,
  "shareBefore": 0.05235602094240838,
  "totalBefore": 1719,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.24% → 2.85% (-46%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). diversity contributed -0.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash280a000b278a144d85247385ef06bfd012aa619c1bc8e3f7bbe044095b5c49f2

Previous hash5b643af9cce517c416a30916cd4882eb8d46da275a1094e865bdec0ff07ef327