Will "fear" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "fear" (6 distinct creators, rank #110). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2529421960251963,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30217754499585897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fear",
    "rank60": 110,
    "share15": 0.0013440860215053765,
    "share60": 0.004705144291091593,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1593,
    "momentum": 0.285663082437276,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 208,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999371875
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30217754499585897
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 13:30 UTC.

Integrity