Will "actual" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "actual" (9 distinct creators, rank #38). Last 15m momentum 0.41×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -0.8802669107400228,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.283567763616856
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "actual",
    "rank60": 38,
    "share15": 0.004032258064516129,
    "share60": 0.00972396486825596,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1593,
    "momentum": 0.41467221644120705,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 208,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99974875
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.283567763616856
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000561032299430953,
  "shareRatio": 0.2844278657710297,
  "totalAfter": 12477,
  "shareBefore": 0.0020494428077366465,
  "totalBefore": 7807,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity