Ledger / Prediction #3900 · narrative · 1H
Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (7 distinct creators, rank #91). Last 15m momentum 1.26×.
Made2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 0.23133257345489808,
"diversity": 0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5378855252250228
},
"features": {
"term": "doge",
"rank60": 91,
"share15": 0.006720430107526882,
"share60": 0.00533249686323714,
"total15": 371,
"total60": 1593,
"momentum": 1.2602783048703352,
"diversity": 0.875,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 208,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984925
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5378855252250228
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.214
Log loss0.620
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006543723973825104,
"shareRatio": 1.2829614604462474,
"totalAfter": 1681,
"shareBefore": 0.005018820577164366,
"totalBefore": 1594,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 8
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "doge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.65% (+30%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "doge" (1H). momentum contributed +0.23 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
11ba651fa1ff8bf97aa86f2274fccf7500bfbf3a28aeac103c8556c2c3b4c671Previous hash
29b5284f6ee7bfc08db761991dc7d536e380fd62de5464a62bef50a4b71d84b5