Ledger / Prediction #3899 · narrative · 1H
Will "pookie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
127 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "pookie" (66 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.87×.
Made2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.48521237610367357,
"momentum": 0.6233746612309218,
"diversity": -0.27637795275590554
},
"rawProbability": 0.6299981983289847
},
"features": {
"term": "pookie",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.14919354838709678,
"share60": 0.0799874529485571,
"total15": 371,
"total60": 1593,
"momentum": 1.8652118912080962,
"diversity": 0.5196850393700787,
"launches15": 55,
"launches60": 127,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 66
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 208,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984925
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6299981983289847
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000594883997620464,
"shareRatio": 0.011156186612576065,
"totalAfter": 1681,
"shareBefore": 0.07967377666248432,
"totalBefore": 1594,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 127
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "pookie" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.97% → 0.06% (-99%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "pookie" (1H). momentum contributed +0.62 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
29b5284f6ee7bfc08db761991dc7d536e380fd62de5464a62bef50a4b71d84b5Previous hash
d550c31b14d8f318eedc0ef1f4916352517f14f5a70ffa5866751471caf7f6e4