Will "porcupine" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

134 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "porcupine" (69 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4932602831275216,
      "momentum": -0.5842553130354117,
      "diversity": -0.2820895522388059
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3378064957070918
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "porcupine",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04704301075268817,
    "share60": 0.08437892095357591,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1593,
    "momentum": 0.5575208857976576,
    "diversity": 0.5149253731343284,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 134,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 69
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 208,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984925
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3378064957070918
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003569303985722784,
  "shareRatio": 0.045827458018202795,
  "totalAfter": 1681,
  "shareBefore": 0.08406524466750313,
  "totalBefore": 1594,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 134
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity