Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (20 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -1.4212691291164625,
      "diversity": 0.023076923076923127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29412222104216895
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.004054054054054054,
    "share60": 0.01679340937896071,
    "total15": 369,
    "total60": 1577,
    "momentum": 0.2414074451810301,
    "diversity": 0.7692307692307693,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 209,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997191550925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29412222104216895
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 13:00 UTC.

Integrity