Ledger / Prediction #3889 · narrative · 24H
Will "jeremiah" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
27 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "jeremiah" (8 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.
Made2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2529598430355343,
"momentum": 1.2932249122451371,
"diversity": -0.5444444444444444
},
"rawProbability": 0.5500493658466115
},
"features": {
"term": "jeremiah",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.06351351351351352,
"share60": 0.017427122940430924,
"total15": 369,
"total60": 1577,
"momentum": 3.644520884520885,
"diversity": 0.2962962962962963,
"launches15": 23,
"launches60": 27,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 209,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997191550925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5500493658466115
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 13:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
95bb78e42fddcde32a95a601ddb97b4cfa8e44f6d9a0598d30a01c37e40ce98ePrevious hash
df9dc0a0cc9194e5d7572aa366d1b0327b4d3ba9d360f95d6bd2bc889af82cad