GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3887 · narrative · 6H

Will "jeremiah" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "jeremiah" (8 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.

Made2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 1.2932249122451371,
      "diversity": -0.5444444444444444
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5989803147579609
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jeremiah",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.06351351351351352,
    "share60": 0.017427122940430924,
    "total15": 369,
    "total60": 1577,
    "momentum": 3.644520884520885,
    "diversity": 0.2962962962962963,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 209,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988766203703704
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5989803147579609
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.359
Log loss0.914
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00275884453099643,
  "shareRatio": 0.7762404573114512,
  "totalAfter": 12324,
  "shareBefore": 0.003540983606557377,
  "totalBefore": 7625,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "jeremiah" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.28% (-22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "jeremiah" (6H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2dd962bae6fa2e31ff0d6c932f410a004cdfa5637ed2cfb7c8490dd0c52b644c
Previous hash0bf318ebcd651ce63ad2bcf8146859b7378fdab0f9486880f2e8cbd3f6e8db29