Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (17 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.67×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -0.39541619473078116,
      "diversity": -0.17142857142857149
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3738112520596853
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.012162162162162163,
    "share60": 0.01806083650190114,
    "total15": 369,
    "total60": 1577,
    "momentum": 0.6733997155049788,
    "diversity": 0.6071428571428571,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 209,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988766203703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3738112520596853
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02231418370658877,
  "shareRatio": 1.4029920116194625,
  "totalAfter": 12324,
  "shareBefore": 0.015868852459016394,
  "totalBefore": 7625,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 275,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 121
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity