Ledger / Prediction #3884 · narrative · 1H

Will "mim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 81% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "mim" (12 distinct creators, rank #45). Last 15m momentum 4.26×.

Made2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 1.4504104957675494,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8074343842037517
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mim",
    "rank60": 45,
    "share15": 0.03918918918918919,
    "share60": 0.009188846641318124,
    "total15": 369,
    "total60": 1577,
    "momentum": 4.264864864864865,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 209,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932597222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8074343842037517
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.652

Log loss1.647

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0034904013961605585,
  "shareRatio": 0.414915797914996,
  "totalAfter": 1719,
  "shareBefore": 0.008799497171590195,
  "totalBefore": 1591,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 81% that "mim" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 0.35% (-60%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "mim" (1H). momentum contributed +1.45 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 81% and wrong on "mim". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8000b4489ef145ab30d8bfd5141fcbba5b7b0106d632a5a3d312d22d828c6c50

Previous hasha3eaa30f91cb27865f665c85da8159a248ebe842b6d883c213796b4b21ba0627