Ledger / Prediction #3882 · narrative · 1H
Will "paid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "paid" (14 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.64×.
Made2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.9708374155056632,
"diversity": -0.3580645161290323
},
"rawProbability": 0.6425514126755842
},
"features": {
"term": "paid",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.052702702702702706,
"share60": 0.019961977186311788,
"total15": 369,
"total60": 1577,
"momentum": 2.6401544401544403,
"diversity": 0.45161290322580644,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 209,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932597222222223
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6425514126755842
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.413
Log loss1.029
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0075625363583478765,
"shareRatio": 0.39667774086378743,
"totalAfter": 1719,
"shareBefore": 0.01948460087994972,
"totalBefore": 1591,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 13,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "paid" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.95% → 0.76% (-61%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "paid" (1H). momentum contributed +0.97 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e9a9625095c2ba2446795fc16b7f382ae488d935847f76cac2cb70c2f1119bffPrevious hash
9fbd0098df96c21cbcb1647da3f092ce9af8a6736def9babd24f66d5b620714c