Ledger / Prediction #3878 · token · 6H

Will $FKI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05496948633657418
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FHjmVTrsQsiFb6aVrWfKuNLwoJy9EuDNitgXrndnc2D6",
    "name": "Flying Ketamine Inu",
    "symbol": "FKI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 40,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3007.2998492868933,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 556,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05496948633657418
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.057

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T12:11:15.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3008.7311806184644,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3008.7311806184644,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3007.2998492868933,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6014.599698573787
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $FKI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,009, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FKI (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbaf990198c3a11bda569466610316091b4b82876032cd2253e971321ea2bbfc7

Previous hash8b292dc5366b991ee658a036642482b73413af86d60ce24e2e56528147c3b4d8