GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3873 · narrative · 24H

Will "jackie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "jackie" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.62×.

Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 1.2865522047893398,
      "diversity": -0.1956521739130434
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6015410450232216
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jackie",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.10966981132075472,
    "share60": 0.03029315960912052,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1534,
    "momentum": 3.6202830188679247,
    "diversity": 0.5869565217391305,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998465162037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6015410450232216
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC.

Integrity

Hashf1c71f7e3be4b509b0aa9633cc29ae222296558f6b8cce487617df05ec4aa1a7
Previous hash99b7884229092d4829ec697d9cbf7fec38f91c38ad778ebfba4dccd7e3b3ce95