Will "math" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "math" (7 distinct creators, rank #101). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.5466611392668763,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22647692880699574
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "math",
    "rank60": 101,
    "share15": 0.0011792452830188679,
    "share60": 0.005537459283387622,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1534,
    "momentum": 0.21295782463928967,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993860648148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22647692880699574
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03289473684210526,
  "totalAfter": 11967,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012033694344163659,
  "totalBefore": 7479,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity