Will "jackie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "jackie" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.62×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": 1.2865522047893398,
"diversity": -0.1956521739130434
},
"rawProbability": 0.667443814169093
},
"features": {
"term": "jackie",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.10966981132075472,
"share60": 0.03029315960912052,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1534,
"momentum": 3.6202830188679247,
"diversity": 0.5869565217391305,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993860648148148
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.667443814169093
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00593298236817916,
"shareRatio": 0.9407894736842104,
"totalAfter": 11967,
"shareBefore": 0.006284262601952133,
"totalBefore": 7479,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 71,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 47
}Predicted 67% that "jackie" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.59% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "jackie" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
5cf08569556ca04c5b747a505e593f6bd70adcb97c27b0c57dfbe6953837d3734cf50a87e5ebec991fea8973d52919c42eabef285601df86a905f01815fa4e29