Ledger / Prediction #3867 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (19 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.
Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": -0.5592744857089911,
"diversity": -0.08571428571428567
},
"rawProbability": 0.3347956854600626
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.01061320754716981,
"share60": 0.018566775244299675,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1534,
"momentum": 0.5716236345580933,
"diversity": 0.6785714285714286,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963163888888888
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3347956854600626
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.112
Log loss0.408
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.016938519447929738,
"shareRatio": 0.9376890502117362,
"totalAfter": 1594,
"shareBefore": 0.018076178179470628,
"totalBefore": 1549,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 27,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 33% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.81% → 1.69% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b72025464b9e5cd269f10467783a41a87d1732bf342e06adfdacc0916a99e7fdPrevious hash
7dc69afd84029c322fac62c47d384f6560d68de289077c42c793b6de98b71550