Ledger / Prediction #3866 · narrative · 1H
Will "fartcrack" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "fartcrack" (15 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.86×.
Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": 1.0501634267251094,
"diversity": -0.2571428571428572
},
"rawProbability": 0.6794914198555514
},
"features": {
"term": "fartcrack",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.05306603773584906,
"share60": 0.018566775244299675,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1534,
"momentum": 2.8581181727904665,
"diversity": 0.5357142857142857,
"launches15": 22,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963163888888888
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6794914198555514
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.462
Log loss1.138
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006900878293601004,
"shareRatio": 0.3921245119067261,
"totalAfter": 1594,
"shareBefore": 0.018076178179470628,
"totalBefore": 1549,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 68% that "fartcrack" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.81% → 0.69% (-62%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fartcrack" (1H). momentum contributed +1.05 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7dc69afd84029c322fac62c47d384f6560d68de289077c42c793b6de98b71550Previous hash
93f0e8dea1a1b8c30421c0ecaf8bd0fbc7ee71c46548ce83df4e5c9577dc0740