GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3865 · narrative · 1H

Will "jackie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "jackie" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.62×.

Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 1.2865522047893398,
      "diversity": -0.1956521739130434
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7546892967570965
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jackie",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.10966981132075472,
    "share60": 0.03029315960912052,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1534,
    "momentum": 3.6202830188679247,
    "diversity": 0.5869565217391305,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963163888888888
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7546892967570965
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.570
Log loss1.405
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00439146800501882,
  "shareRatio": 0.15673981191222572,
  "totalAfter": 1594,
  "shareBefore": 0.029696578437701744,
  "totalBefore": 1549,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "jackie" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.97% → 0.44% (-85%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "jackie" (1H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "jackie". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash93f0e8dea1a1b8c30421c0ecaf8bd0fbc7ee71c46548ce83df4e5c9577dc0740
Previous hashe613054566cdea4bf044fcbc53bdbf2f5bc36b81e5871e94118fe337ec86cf31