Will "jackie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "jackie" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.62×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": 1.2865522047893398,
"diversity": -0.1956521739130434
},
"rawProbability": 0.7546892967570965
},
"features": {
"term": "jackie",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.10966981132075472,
"share60": 0.03029315960912052,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1534,
"momentum": 3.6202830188679247,
"diversity": 0.5869565217391305,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963163888888888
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7546892967570965
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00439146800501882,
"shareRatio": 0.15673981191222572,
"totalAfter": 1594,
"shareBefore": 0.029696578437701744,
"totalBefore": 1549,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 7,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Predicted 75% that "jackie" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.97% → 0.44% (-85%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "jackie" (1H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "jackie". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
93f0e8dea1a1b8c30421c0ecaf8bd0fbc7ee71c46548ce83df4e5c9577dc0740e613054566cdea4bf044fcbc53bdbf2f5bc36b81e5871e94118fe337ec86cf31