Ledger / Prediction #3861 · token · 1H

Will $SOLSISTERS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6HaYH4yvQTXjvQ1tLV1iEpkmKVa7nu8CeSGLU2Wppump",
    "name": "Sol Sisters",
    "symbol": "SOLSISTERS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3259.44673365865,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 457,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T12:47:33.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 4161.237478932357,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4170.899371669434,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3259.44673365865,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6518.8934673173
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $SOLSISTERS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $4,161, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $SOLSISTERS (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash27cd7e111458ad87547eb29df88811d48d010c5db96b931a134750744da8b860

Previous hash06ab274958f38a0f76c2faec8aff59cee6094988d715bf790e28da61b3b5b256