Ledger / Prediction #3859 · narrative · 24H
Will "ecogpt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 27% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
25 of 1365 launches in the last hour referenced "ecogpt" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.
Made2026-10-14 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24141568686511503,
"momentum": -1.4336542342778424,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.2716792748523542
},
"features": {
"term": "ecogpt",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.004451038575667656,
"share60": 0.018667642752562226,
"total15": 336,
"total60": 1365,
"momentum": 0.23843602722988305,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 25,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 156,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993791666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999741319444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2716792748523542
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 12:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
e23131f5b670a3ed72338b7471ff8208535681c527d77f8981db5ada059036e5Previous hash
1719e5f59a193658dce371650580c2235e74fd192a1d5ff57e483ff3cb463852