Will "neymar" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
26 of 1365 launches in the last hour referenced "neymar" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.90×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24729879383810724,
"momentum": 1.3610928289505775,
"diversity": -0.06923076923076925
},
"rawProbability": 0.6851222017320816
},
"features": {
"term": "neymar",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.07566765578635015,
"share60": 0.019399707174231333,
"total15": 336,
"total60": 1365,
"momentum": 3.9004535020435585,
"diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 26,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 156,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993791666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998965277777778
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6851222017320816
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.003751705320600273,
"shareRatio": 1.0351217832915351,
"totalAfter": 11728,
"shareBefore": 0.003596624706045096,
"totalBefore": 7229,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 44,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 26
}Predicted 69% that "neymar" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.38% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "neymar" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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