Ledger / Prediction #3846 · token · 6H

Will $这只可 still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "eyes".

Made2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07984616815180759
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "AJMvs84PuUX1MpGEnBjKeWS41oqxab6UY7m1Reavpump",
    "name": "ZYRO",
    "symbol": "这只可",
    "hotTerms": [
      "eyes",
      "magic"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 332,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1526.7002318972602,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07984616815180759
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T11:18:37.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1104.538673506381,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6600.479933556835,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1526.7002318972602,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that $这只可 would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,105, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $这只可 (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf6c8ef629ca0ab1867cd5be1d11428d75916255c9b3ed1a20ab5e31028e7f447

Previous hash9dc9d68f8a99a789a8d031ed8ab6b06f940e4c4a123e92d427d74aff4364c436