Ledger / Prediction #3844 · narrative · 24H
Will "lady" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "lady" (3 distinct creators, rank #139). Last 15m momentum 3.01×.
Made2026-10-14 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 1.1017324160043533,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5286038157462221
},
"features": {
"term": "lady",
"rank60": 139,
"share15": 0.0140625,
"share60": 0.004672897196261682,
"total15": 319,
"total60": 1390,
"momentum": 3.0093750000000004,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 175,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999730775462963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5286038157462221
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 11:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
ab78ca10b59b1ddeb920dd82ad415e055f3e98eac8d925cdc7f064cb2a71f991Previous hash
a4f447c5afe3d895a4efb08df3cfc507a620629992461bedf0043da5bb86f1a1