Ledger / Prediction #384 · token · 6H

Will $lolcat still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "paired".

Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CPL4k3swpKez7W5CBrVG5q6NiMYwR4UwmhXAgQgTpump",
    "name": "NOT PAIRED TO QUANTUM",
    "symbol": "lolcat",
    "hotTerms": [
      "paired",
      "quantum",
      "lolcat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3036.9413336759612,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 900,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3036.9413336759612,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3036.9413336759612,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6073.8826673519225
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $lolcat would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,037, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $lolcat (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash853de677d12134cfe1cc13a845bf8c26ca811889be6489d612bce2195e53da81

Previous hash577f6c0f946f09145c096460b03d75a7a5817d346b922f3c80542e4be13f668c