Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (27 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": -0.5077054964297469,
"diversity": 0.11249999999999999
},
"rawProbability": 0.4057090930760471
},
"features": {
"term": "justice",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.0140625,
"share60": 0.02336448598130841,
"total15": 319,
"total60": 1390,
"momentum": 0.601875,
"diversity": 0.84375,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 175,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989231018518518
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4057090930760471
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.009224610564789836,
"shareRatio": 0.9170169353193225,
"totalAfter": 11491,
"shareBefore": 0.010037641154328732,
"totalBefore": 7173,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 106,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 72
}Predicted 41% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.00% → 0.92% (-8%). PARTIAL.
— "justice" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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