Ledger / Prediction #3832 · token · 6H

Will $KIMBAMOON still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "kimba".

Made2026-10-14 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DdJsfCQMsEsRGs3Lgsne5doG2pHw3v4CedHEmPRApump",
    "name": "Kimba MOON",
    "symbol": "KIMBAMOON",
    "hotTerms": [
      "kimba"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3087.638366901813,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 470,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T10:42:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3072.6999213828585,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3098.6357406625057,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3087.638366901813,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6175.276733803626
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $KIMBAMOON would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,073, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $KIMBAMOON (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3b0fc0fa8c9b28a9003dcb59dda8aa6f69b017398a45f551a06a4816b16104a1

Previous hashfa4ca83f90ed373600e2382685ca7bbee99549ff345cf062be29b2f13dbccf16