Ledger / Prediction #3825 · narrative · 24H
Will "marsx" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1318 launches in the last hour referenced "marsx" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.61×.
Made2026-10-14 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 1.284731799134823,
"diversity": -0.23731343283582085
},
"rawProbability": 0.6030891386382308
},
"features": {
"term": "marsx",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.18493150684931506,
"share60": 0.0511751326762699,
"total15": 364,
"total60": 1318,
"momentum": 3.6136986301369864,
"diversity": 0.5522388059701493,
"launches15": 67,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 157,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963130555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998463773148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6030891386382308
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 11:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
2dcb471eec7857eb8dfbac3d11cc06500ed49c31e7c97d4f4d553f9705f7b83aPrevious hash
13774cd98cbf3a066681126c4f08ac83c3aa0f8179d9deeb56e4f8083454be85