Ledger / Prediction #3817 · narrative · 1H

Will "marsx" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 1318 launches in the last hour referenced "marsx" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.61×.

Made2026-10-14 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 1.284731799134823,
      "diversity": -0.23731343283582085
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7570744486743884
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "marsx",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.18493150684931506,
    "share60": 0.0511751326762699,
    "total15": 364,
    "total60": 1318,
    "momentum": 3.6136986301369864,
    "diversity": 0.5522388059701493,
    "launches15": 67,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 157,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963130555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963130555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7570744486743884
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.573

Log loss1.415

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005113221329437546,
  "shareRatio": 0.1072992700729927,
  "totalAfter": 1369,
  "shareBefore": 0.05068078668683813,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "marsx" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.07% → 0.51% (-90%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "marsx" (1H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "marsx". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7bda0cf48e01a7c54721e1bc514ed9389918811f384d5c8ce02130d0abe83786

Previous hash1712fbb11ad7a8311dab4583130d2ae02f38706a9d015bd32afad693c3888e9e