Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -3.6127180931483722,
      "diversity": -0.8478260869565217
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0015625,
    "share60": 0.057916666666666665,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.026978417266187053,
    "diversity": 0.043478260869565216,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 135,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993763888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998960648148149
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029422930903568716,
  "shareRatio": 0.29179693799604595,
  "totalAfter": 10536,
  "shareBefore": 0.010174835196331326,
  "totalBefore": 6978,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity