GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3803 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.2946025152963547,
      "diversity": -0.030000000000000027
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5686925424547438
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0453125,
    "share60": 0.03375,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 1.3425925925925926,
    "diversity": 0.725,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 135,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993763888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993763888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5686925424547438
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.186
Log loss0.564
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0336676217765043,
  "shareRatio": 1.010807992435289,
  "totalAfter": 1396,
  "shareBefore": 0.03325020781379884,
  "totalBefore": 1203,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 47,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.33% → 3.37% (+1%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash84dd5c7438c549faf0e6100a41e8a85bcf68621eb84edbe5b42b85b1bba69694
Previous hash2ca92f9d7b32119429ba3fef83556bb4f1368cc1403a3745845613e9d0296f4a