Ledger / Prediction #3802 · narrative · 1H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -3.6127180931483722,
      "diversity": -0.8478260869565217
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0015625,
    "share60": 0.057916666666666665,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.026978417266187053,
    "diversity": 0.043478260869565216,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 135,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993763888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993763888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007163323782234957,
  "shareRatio": 0.018601010387109068,
  "totalAfter": 1396,
  "shareBefore": 0.057356608478802994,
  "totalBefore": 1203,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "hello" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.74% → 0.07% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hello" (1H). momentum contributed -3.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2ca92f9d7b32119429ba3fef83556bb4f1368cc1403a3745845613e9d0296f4a

Previous hasha9c1dd3b2628ab3e210f87d9914f449fb01f8022b7bcb8152603fa078cd9a3d1