Ledger / Prediction #3801 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

105 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (30 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45667836565851344,
      "momentum": -0.734265427489418,
      "diversity": -0.5571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24328926774166185
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0421875,
    "share60": 0.08791666666666667,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.47985781990521326,
    "diversity": 0.2857142857142857,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 105,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 135,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993763888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993763888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24328926774166185
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.059

Log loss0.279

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05157593123209169,
  "shareRatio": 0.592264398660637,
  "totalAfter": 1396,
  "shareBefore": 0.08728179551122195,
  "totalBefore": 1203,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.73% → 5.16% (-41%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.73 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha9c1dd3b2628ab3e210f87d9914f449fb01f8022b7bcb8152603fa078cd9a3d1

Previous hashfd0acd7d56ebc0906400b4255e536de039de353b720f1ee69c1fbfd96b4ce5c5