Will "buying" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1068 launches in the last hour referenced "buying" (5 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.704442231211301,
      "diversity": -0.6142857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1972668017079001
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "buying",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.009943181818181818,
    "share60": 0.020112254443405052,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1068,
    "momentum": 0.49438424947145876,
    "diversity": 0.23809523809523808,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 111,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938175,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938175
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1972668017079001
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0045385779122541605,
  "shareRatio": 0.2463393626184324,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.019498607242339833,
  "totalBefore": 1077,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity