GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3786 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1068 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (15 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 2.26×.

Made2026-10-14 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.816048195206303,
      "diversity": -0.11739130434782608
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6519372048507965
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.04971590909090909,
    "share60": 0.021983161833489244,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1068,
    "momentum": 2.26154497098646,
    "diversity": 0.6521739130434783,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 111,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938175,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938175
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6519372048507965
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.121
Log loss0.428
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024205748865355523,
  "shareRatio": 1.1268715524034674,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.02135561745589601,
  "totalBefore": 1077,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.14% → 2.42% (+13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "money" (1H). momentum contributed +0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72bf9077a160c3123928534b1841f4cbabf69705d4b82a80f242e8eada16b293
Previous hash064686645269b8e797db859f33d2f22cf71408476e9ab295d5e9f6e3768b99d8