Will "relatable" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "relatable" (4 distinct creators, rank #119). Last 15m momentum 1.27×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.23914795744518677,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.4773663712964965
},
"features": {
"term": "relatable",
"rank60": 119,
"share15": 0.007042253521126761,
"share60": 0.005544354838709678,
"total15": 212,
"total60": 991,
"momentum": 1.2701664532650447,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 108,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994797222222223
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4773663712964965
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012965964343598054,
"shareRatio": 0.5420881123128315,
"totalAfter": 9255,
"shareBefore": 0.0024242424242424242,
"totalBefore": 7425,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 18
}Predicted 48% that "relatable" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.13% (-47%). CORRECT.
— The prior alone was right on "relatable" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
f08d72a298cf8a0cd0dddae8a697e6cee6cc35220b6873bb3176da40d8916401e023b0fc26033593fd86a74ca0ae33bdd5f8bd282c41ee799bcc79a7b8b96ed9