Will "trash" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "trash" (17 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.07100697085865275,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49719791451515194
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trash",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.01643192488262911,
    "share60": 0.017641129032258066,
    "total15": 212,
    "total60": 991,
    "momentum": 0.9314553990610328,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994797222222223
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49719791451515194
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011885467314964883,
  "shareRatio": 0.4987210633278049,
  "totalAfter": 9255,
  "shareBefore": 0.0024242424242424242,
  "totalBefore": 7425,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity