GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3772 · narrative · 1H

Will "code" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "code" (5 distinct creators, rank #96). Last 15m momentum 2.96×.

Made2026-10-14 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.0864458178323906,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7477118552815765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "code",
    "rank60": 96,
    "share15": 0.01643192488262911,
    "share60": 0.005544354838709678,
    "total15": 212,
    "total60": 991,
    "momentum": 2.963721724285105,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968783333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7477118552815765
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.559
Log loss1.377
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0033250207813798837,
  "shareRatio": 0.6761552401087285,
  "totalAfter": 1203,
  "shareBefore": 0.005030181086519115,
  "totalBefore": 994,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "code" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.33% (-34%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "code" (1H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash161e90c6313c6b664689447553aed7e01cb2142d57e77867451d8931f7cf02bf
Previous hash79aa007af76759020980216a6a23443453efdde8cffdc0441548658a3fbd8576