Ledger / Prediction #376 · narrative · 1H

Will "moments" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "moments" (7 distinct creators, rank #221). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.18252670604075066,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46703392571359315
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moments",
    "rank60": 221,
    "share15": 0.002564102564102564,
    "share60": 0.0030775543701272055,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 0.8331623931623932,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918497222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46703392571359315
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.218

Log loss0.629

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004084967320261438,
  "shareRatio": 0.20057166190281747,
  "totalAfter": 2448,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028513238289205704,
  "totalBefore": 2455,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "moments" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.04% (-86%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "moments" (1H). momentum contributed -0.18 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashec3fbe7a1d698355b269f6a1d8f1afb735a21d23627a918f7249ef69df642d4b

Previous hashfd2de3d392b59cb1a87c5688c13876fd691cdaf8dc4ba84c6e34583026cfc001