Ledger / Prediction #3752 · token · 6H

Will $MM still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "39JKFrbax7RbbPD4UEtDojifApyeTbCokwMsaiJLpump",
    "name": "Moon Metal",
    "symbol": "MM",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 26,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3448.4904243470487,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T10:33:50.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2986.692267917615,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4560.153270415341,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3448.4904243470487,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6896.980848694097
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $MM would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,987, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $MM (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb4864317b5f189f66ffa27b71281a8fdf0f257333568b508182976a8abd9bf77

Previous hash42209d02d86fbefcb9ffadc27d94f3dc572fb71ecb319bd97d90ce0086f3d472