Ledger / Prediction #375 · narrative · 1H

Will "aura" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "aura" (40 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.92×.

Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 1.3658235144135116,
      "diversity": -0.18358208955223887
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.781004483049962
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "aura",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.10854700854700855,
    "share60": 0.02769798933114485,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 3.9189490345045903,
    "diversity": 0.5970149253731343,
    "launches15": 63,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918497222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.781004483049962
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.610

Log loss1.519

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028594771241830064,
  "shareRatio": 0.11142870105712083,
  "totalAfter": 2448,
  "shareBefore": 0.027291242362525458,
  "totalBefore": 2455,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "aura" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.73% → 0.29% (-90%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "aura" (1H). momentum contributed +1.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "aura". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfd2de3d392b59cb1a87c5688c13876fd691cdaf8dc4ba84c6e34583026cfc001

Previous hash980563f93831ddc212e78355b35c2f43e93291909b41844ee9db51f757dbee6f