Ledger / Prediction #3749 · token · 1H

Will $GRDE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "run".

Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "74yNT4G3k6LX3hesNd7HjMtG7MUNwN7dqTvYVDMXpump",
    "name": "GRANDE",
    "symbol": "GRDE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "run"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 16,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4010.9114884767487,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T08:26:43.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 38.96015142592342,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6244.345479276301,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4010.9114884767487,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 8021.822976953497
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $GRDE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $39, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $GRDE (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb57457a9a2040ed99a5d307f43bb4437abdfbd8dd63ca6d3c05ed8829dc2aa35

Previous hash7a55aef7a77f03b3d9cd84da943ee92451cedfcee82411122c4db4fec07a7628