Ledger / Prediction #3744 · narrative · 6H
Will "tech" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
13 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "tech" (13 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.95×.
Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.14332671675411546,
"momentum": 0.6699198923824013,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6175761013803347
},
"features": {
"term": "tech",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.024886877828054297,
"share60": 0.012735849056603774,
"total15": 220,
"total60": 1059,
"momentum": 1.9540807776101892,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 13,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 13
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 117,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991490277777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6175761013803347
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.146
Log loss0.482
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005940358797671379,
"shareRatio": 1.440467459309072,
"totalAfter": 8417,
"shareBefore": 0.004104792949414463,
"totalBefore": 8283,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 50,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 34
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "tech" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.59% (+45%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "tech" (6H). momentum contributed +0.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
855e90dc20e3840405be9cce402b919db6362a605ac80f1cf18474d609d087faPrevious hash
651d4fa31edd5c4428e8579b50d3e1c47105b3e12435b00a33801a07086a2e26