Ledger / Prediction #3743 · narrative · 6H
Will "moodeng" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
17 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "moodeng" (9 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.97×.
Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.18356631474331733,
"momentum": 1.3798092540854203,
"diversity": -0.2647058823529412
},
"rawProbability": 0.6477283490776998
},
"features": {
"term": "moodeng",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.06561085972850679,
"share60": 0.01650943396226415,
"total15": 220,
"total60": 1059,
"momentum": 3.9741435035552684,
"diversity": 0.5294117647058824,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 17,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 117,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991490277777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6477283490776998
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.420
Log loss1.043
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000594035879767138,
"shareRatio": 0.2303170005509976,
"totalAfter": 8417,
"shareBefore": 0.00277677170107449,
"totalBefore": 8283,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 23
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "moodeng" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.06% (-79%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "moodeng" (6H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
651d4fa31edd5c4428e8579b50d3e1c47105b3e12435b00a33801a07086a2e26Previous hash
d4dd0a0362c87d9dada34b6a0e52b66c6832866a5c2c77609ba6744cbf454857