Ledger / Prediction #3742 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (25 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.
Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.3379131948591634,
"diversity": 0.0375
},
"rawProbability": 0.5393436272412414
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.042986425339366516,
"share60": 0.030660377358490566,
"total15": 220,
"total60": 1059,
"momentum": 1.402018795683954,
"diversity": 0.78125,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 25
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 117,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991490277777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5393436272412414
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.291
Log loss0.775
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.018890340976594987,
"shareRatio": 0.5738977545722299,
"totalAfter": 8417,
"shareBefore": 0.03295907279971025,
"totalBefore": 8283,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 159,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 273
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.30% → 1.89% (-43%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d4dd0a0362c87d9dada34b6a0e52b66c6832866a5c2c77609ba6744cbf454857Previous hash
7a54848c849d81be6dac9a687e77f0e457d97e696c84c29fe89534e1be2c7ce7