Ledger / Prediction #3741 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

118 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (31 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4741870068047347,
      "momentum": -2.290760743112671,
      "diversity": -0.5847457627118644
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12122041077521666
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.011312217194570135,
    "share60": 0.11179245283018868,
    "total15": 220,
    "total60": 1059,
    "momentum": 0.10118945338602821,
    "diversity": 0.2627118644067797,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 118,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 117,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991490277777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12122041077521666
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.772

Log loss2.110

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05488891529048354,
  "shareRatio": 1.1114476189315818,
  "totalAfter": 8417,
  "shareBefore": 0.0493782445973681,
  "totalBefore": 8283,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 462,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 409
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.94% → 5.49% (+11%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "cat" (6H). momentum contributed -2.29 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 88% and wrong on "cat". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7a54848c849d81be6dac9a687e77f0e457d97e696c84c29fe89534e1be2c7ce7

Previous hash7ff86dcadb296808aeca93268dafa43ab4811e4c4b06feadb8fb4efc61b1e075