Ledger / Prediction #3740 · narrative · 1H

Will "song" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "song" (4 distinct creators, rank #136). Last 15m momentum 0.44×.

Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.8300337872100103,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2553966588325393
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "song",
    "rank60": 136,
    "share15": 0.0022624434389140274,
    "share60": 0.005188679245283019,
    "total15": 220,
    "total60": 1059,
    "momentum": 0.4360345536816126,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 117,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9948941666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2553966588325393
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.065

Log loss0.295

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004024144869215292,
  "shareRatio": 0.881498401096391,
  "totalAfter": 994,
  "shareBefore": 0.004668534080298786,
  "totalBefore": 1071,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "song" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.40% (-14%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "song" (1H). momentum contributed -0.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7ff86dcadb296808aeca93268dafa43ab4811e4c4b06feadb8fb4efc61b1e075

Previous hash24f046773a5d50731562006adab44f3e549455817983436c8b3020b517f4a79e